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How Will Retail Survive in Our Post-COVID World?

By Gary Tasman Black Friday and the year-end shopping season are right around the corner, and 2020 promises to bring changes to the way we shop for our holiday gifts. Retail had already been undergoing a transformation before the COVID-19 crisis reached our shores, and the pandemic will bring both short and long-term implications to the way we shop. Successful businesses will be those who find a way to reimagine the retail experience, and property owners need to understand how these implications affect them. For decades, shopping malls were the primary destination for holiday shoppers, thanks to big-box stores and appearances by Santa Claus. But as consumer preferences and habits have changed, the mall experience has begun to erode. COVID-19 will likely accelerate this attrition, as Americans continue to avoid crowds and indoor gatherings. Deloitte’s 2020 holiday retail survey found that more than 50% of holiday shoppers feel anxious about shopping in stores this year. It would be a mistake, however, to consider brick-and-mortar retail a thing of the past. While the current state will certainly reinforce the popularity of e-commerce, brick-and-mortar retail still has a path to success. For years, successful retailers have adapted to consumer preferences by providing customers with an experience rather than just a mundane shopping trip. From in-store play centers, to celebrity appearances, to hands-on and virtual reality demonstrations, brick-and-mortar retail is evolving into “retailtainment,” sometimes called experiential retail. Ready to make a move ? Get started by contacting us. Personal shoppers, group cooking demonstrations, and custom fittings might seem tone-deaf in the midst of a pandemic, but savvy business owners are already looking ahead to our post-COVID future. Some experiences simply can’t be provided online, and retailers who are prepared to shift their business models to a more experiential paradigm are more likely to weather the storm. After a record year for retail property sales in 2019, retail real estate sales volume has lagged since March. In fact, sales volume in Q2 and Q3 2020 has been lower than we’ve seen in three years. But retail property owners shouldn’t lose hope. While empty retail spaces may be more plentiful now, Cushman & Wakefield’s Chief Economist, Kevin Thorpe, expects retail, and especially experiential concepts, to storm back after COVID-19. “People are pining to go out and shop, eat and be entertained,” explains Thorpe. “Pent-up demand will be unleashed.” It’s not just existing retailers who are buying in to the retailtainment trend. New businesses are already poised to take advantage of this pent-up demand. Consider the early success of Popstroke in Fort Myers, which opened recently to crowds and fanfare despite the pandemic. Popular pre-COVID concepts like painting studios, rage rooms and ax-throwing bars will see a likely resurgence in our post-pandemic future. Even the much-maligned shopping malls are getting in on the action. Forty years ago, malls promoted trendy features like skating rinks and waterparks to draw consumers away from downtown shopping districts. Today, malls like the Edison Mall in Fort Myers are turning to similar tactics, looking towards adaptive reuse to fill vacant space and provide entertainment. Edison Mall will soon be the home of the Southwest Florida Military Museum, a departure from the mall’s traditional retail model. New malls are also providing retailtainment venues. Miami’s planned American Dream mall is expected to host an indoor ski slope, a Ferris wheel, an amusement park, and more. It’s understandable for retail property owners to be frustrated in our current market, but with the proper data and positioning of these properties, retail spaces still hold value. The professionals at Cushman & Wakefield have the research, insights, creativity, and vision to help find the best use for your property and connect you with the buyers who are ready to bring their vision to life. There is no doubt that shoppers will eventually head back to stores for items other than essentials, although with COVID cases spiking across the nation, that shift may not occur in time for this year’s holiday shopping season. “The issue with this recession has not been one of demand, it’s been supply led,” said Cushman & Wakefield Global Futurist Andrew Phipps. “We haven’t had the chance to spend the money we’d like to, as opposed to not having the money to spend.” Even though the 2020 holiday shopping season will continue to see challenges for the brick and mortar retail industry, it’s not time to sound the death knell for retail. Instead, as we inch closer to our post-pandemic future, expect to see the retail market evolve in new and exciting ways. The retailers that will survive will be the ones who anticipate – and invest in — this evolution.

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Q3 Newsletter 2020

Dear Friends and Clients, 2020 continues to bring us change and uncertainty. What’s the positive news? Mounting evidence indicates that our economy began recovering from the COVID-19 recession in May or June, and our Q3 2020 data reflects that. No matter what the future brings, Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Property Southwest Florida has the data and resources to help you navigate it. We’ll continue analyzing the data and providing you with our expert assessments of trends so you can make informed decisions about your commercial property. As always, thank you for being a part of our network. Feel free to call or email me any time with questions about commercial real estate in our region. Sincerely, Gary Tasman CEO & Principal Broker Q3 MARKETBEAT REPORTS Navigating the Southwest Florida commercial real estate market and economic indicators affecting its performance can be a challenging task. Cushman & Wakefield | Commercial Property Southwest Florida offers quarterly MarketBeat reports to help you stay ahead of the real estate curve. MarketBeat reports offer trends, insights and forecasts on all segments of the commercial real estate market in the region. They provide answers to questions such as the current state of the market, and where the real estate market is going. Q3 2020 reports are now available. INDUSTRIAL Q3 2020 Distribution and warehouse leasing led the way in industrial transactions in Q3 2020, but even with 283,902 SF leased, lags significantly behind 2019 numbers. One bright spot is an increase in manufacturing asking rents, which have jumped more than 10% over the last three months. This increase is likely because manufacturers are focusing more on the health and safety of their people and retooling their technology systems to handle changes brought forth by COVID-19. Download Report OFFICE Q3 2020 Although the unemployment rate has improved significantly since last quarter, the COVID recession continues to impact office vacancy rates in Southwest Florida. Overall, our region’s vacancy rate in 5.9%, a slight increase from Q2, however, the North Naples submarket has a 12.2% vacancy rate, a 230 basis point increase over the least three months, and Collier County as a whole has a 10.5% office vacancy rate. Download Report MEDICAL OFFICE Q3 2020 In recent years, Medical Office Building (MOB) tenants have comprised an outsized portion of companies leasing space in the Southwest Florida metro. This can largely be attributed to retirees moving into the area seeking healthcare services. Medical office in Fort Myers has seen vacancy levels drop to approximately *%, almost half of the rate from five years ago. Even with the high level of need for medical services in our region, Southwest Florida ended Q3 with MOB vacancy at 9.5%, a 70 basis-point increase from Q3 2019. Download Report LOCAL NEWS IS INDUSTRIAL THE RECESSION-PROOF ASSET CLASS? The industrial property segment has been among the top performing asset classes in terms of net occupancy growth, rent growth and capital appreciation over the past several years. As COVID-19 spread across the country, real estate markets across the country have been affected in various ways. However, the industrial asset class seems to endure despite the challenges that the COVID-19 recession has brought forth. Much of this is due to the industrial market’s strong position heading into the pandemic. Read More THE VERGE OF A RENAISSANCE: DOWNTOWN AND MIDTOWN FORT MYERS Fort Myers’ River District has been on the cusp of a renaissance for several years. The walkable streets, charming shops, outdoor dining, and plentiful events have drawn visitors back to the city’s once-struggling downtown. The opening of the long-awaited Luminary Hotel & Co. may well represent the tipping point in Fort Myers’ downtown transformation from a local favorite to a national conference and vacation destination. Read More WHAT’S YOUR TAKE…ON THE RECOVERY OF OFFICES? (VIDEO) In this episode of “What’s your Take”, Cushman & Wakefield’s Global Head of Forecasting, Rebecca Rockey, talks about the economy, timing of the recovery and more. Our discussion touches on: How the economy will look over the next 24 months Growth in office-based employment The sectors that will recover most quickly The biggest surprise of the year Creating a view of the future in a time of fundamental uncertainty Read More GLOBAL NEWS CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD AGAIN NAMED WORLD’S TOP REAL ESTATE ADVISOR For the third consecutive year, Cushman & Wakefield has been named the world’s top commercial real estate advisor and consultant in Euromoney’s annual Real Estate Survey. Cushman & Wakefield was also named the No. 1 advisor and consultant for Property Valuation and No. 1 in Agency Letting/Sales. The firm also claimed the No. 1 spot for Investment Managers. Read More GLOBAL ECONOMY REOPENING TRACKER The Cushman & Wakefield Global Economy Reopening Tracker provides a vantage into the changing landscape of economic and social activity across major markets around the world. While the dynamics and details of reopening vary from city-to-city and country to country, governments, health organizations and businesses are working together to reopen multiple sectors of the global economy. Read More GLOBAL OFFICE IMPACT STUDY AND RECOVERY TIMING REPORT COVID-19 is disrupting the economy, accelerating shifts and creating structural changes that will persist for years. Several forces are at play-from office-using job losses, to higher vacancy and downward pressure on rental rates, to an increase in the share of employees who will now work from home either permanently or more regularly. Read More EMPLOYEE SPOTLIGHT Lane Boy Lane Boy joined Cushman & Wakefield | Commercial Property Southwest Florida in July of 2017 and is a director with a passion for commercial property of all types and a particular interest in industrial property and land brokerage. Prior to joining our firm, Lane spent two decades as the CEO of two different real-estate-related businesses, finely honing his negotiating skills to deliver outstanding results for his clients (both buyers and sellers) in even the most complex transactions. Recently, Lane put his skills to work on brokering the sale of a 1.05 acre lot in a prime location just off

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Southwest Florida’s Diversifying Economy (and why it’s important for property owners)

By Gary Tasman Although it may seem as though time has stood still since early March when the COVID-19 pandemic began impacting our region, Southwest Florida has continued to grow. In fact, data from AtoZ Database indicates that nearly 15,000 people have made Southwest Florida their permanent or primary home in the last six months, representing close to 10,000 households. Many of these new residents come via our traditional migration paths. It’s probably no surprise to anyone that about 40% of our area’s newcomers hail from New England, New York, New Jersey, and the upper Midwest. Our sunny and mild winters have been a magnet for transplants from these regions for decades. More surprising, however, is the number of families moving to our region from other parts of the Sunshine State. A full 20% of Southwest Florida’s newest residents hail from areas like Tampa, Orlando, and the state’s bustling east coast. And while northerners move to Southwest Florida for sunshine, fellow Floridians are now flocking to our area for another reason: opportunity. Ready to make a move ? Get started by contacting us. “For decades, the blessing and curse of Southwest Florida has been its distinction as a vacation paradise,” explains Shawn Stoneburner of Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Property Southwest Florida. Tourism and hospitality have been our region’s major economic drivers since the mid-1900s. In good years, the steady flow of tourists to Southwest Florida have kept taxes low and the quality of life high. In other years, our dependence on tourism and hospitality have left us vulnerable as hurricanes, the BP oil spill, and other external factors have stemmed the flow of tourists to our coastal paradise and damaged our region’s economy. Diversifying our economy has been a top priority for our area’s leaders, and that vision for a more varied economy is finally becoming a reality. Today, Southwest Florida is becoming a hotspot for technology, manufacturing and entrepreneurship. Powerhouses Arthrex, NeoGenomics, Gartner, and Alta Resources have expanded their considerable footprints in our area by purchasing property, building facilities and hiring employees, making the region more desirable for other companies to do the same. Growth like this begets more growth, creating a sustainable cycle of economic activity and opportunity. “As businesses move to our area, they lure employees from other parts of the state and across the country,” says Stoneburner. “This influx of new residents creates demand for schools, medical facilities, grocery stores, and other service providers. The construction industry and commercial property owners benefit, and the cycle continues.” Our area will soon see another boost, thanks to the Edison Awards, an international program that honors innovation and brings together hundreds of world-class thought leaders from around the globe for a conference, showcase, and awards program. Fort Myers will be the home of the Edison Awards for at least the next three years, bringing unprecedented exposure to our region. Many of the world’s brightest business minds will converge upon Southwest Florida and will surely see the opportunities that our region presents. Our region’s growth, diversification, and bright future are of great importance to commercial property owners. As new residents flock to Southwest Florida, new businesses are following suit, and their planners are seeking land and existing buildings to stake a claim in Southwest Florida. In turn, the intrinsic value of your property increases. If you own commercial property in our region, now is a great time to sell. If you own a commercial property and want to understand the value it holds, Gary Tasman and Shawn Stoneburner of Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Property Southwest Florida are your go-to team. Their extensive knowledge of Southwest Florida, along with best-in-class data and evidence-based insights, will help position your property to sell for maximum value in minimum time. The landscape of Southwest Florida is changing. Are you ready for it? Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Property Southwest Florida wants to help you take advantage of this opportunity. Contact-us.

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Cushman and Wakefield Commercial Property Southwest Florida Helps Tiger Woods Bring PopStroke to Fort Myers

When Tiger Woods Ventures and PopStroke Entertainment were on the hunt for a Southwest Florida location, they turned to the Go-To Team of Gary Tasman and Shawn Stoneburner at Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Property Southwest Florida.  Tasman and Stoneburner located the perfect site for Fort Myers’ new PopStroke golf and entertainment complex. Gary and Shawn closed the deal in October 2018, and PopStroke opened to great fanfare in September 2020. Learn more about Fort Myers’ newest sports entertainment venue on NBC-2.

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